Preliminary data of the Project “Dangerous Climate Change in Brazil”, a partnership between National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and the Met Office Hadley Centre, from the United Kingdom, state that the global warming and deforestations might cause a great impact on the Amazon Forest, and also affect the regional and local climate.

Besides that, emphasizing some other former studies, the research points that bigger deforestation might turn the climate hotter and dryer.  If more than 40% of the Amazon forest extension is deforested, that action might cause lack of rain in the Eastern Amazon. According to researchers, 40% of deforestation, or global warming between 3o.C and 4o.C, would represent the tipping point, or rather, the point in which part of the forest is about to collapse.

The Project is being presented on December 9th, during a side-event of Met Office on the 15th Conference of the United Nations about Climate Changes (COP15), in Copenhagen.

The study was developed on INPE’s and Hadley Centre climate model that shows a bigger warming in the tropical Amazons with regard to the rising of middle temperature expected for the continental areas of the planet. Another important result is the climate tropical trend, in part of Brazil, two seasons a year. In this scenery, spring time can become as hot as summer time or even more in some regions of subtropical climate.

These impacts are extremely important because precipitancy reductions in the basins will promote the shortage of hydroelectric energy production. The Models show that lower concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere causes less heating and consequently, fewer impacts on rain and temperature system and climate extremes. Maybe in Brazil the best mitigation option of the global warming effects is to reduce the deforestation as much as possible”, says Jose Marengo, researcher from INPE.

It is also important to remind that the impacts themselves coming from the deforestation are bigger when dry period is concerned. Therefore, reducing the deforestation would help to keep the Forest more resistant in a climate than under changes.

Climate Models
While Hadley Center global climate model has been used to project climate change in all over the world, INPE’s regional climate model gives us bigger details about Brazil for different global warming.  In Brazil, INPE has been using since the eighties global climate models to study deforestation impacts on the Amazon climate. Likewise, its regional models have been used to evaluate the Amazon deforestation impacts on the climate all over the country.